Health authorities fighting the Ebola crisis in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo are utilizing de-identified mobile phone data to track population movements and pinpoint potential areas for the virus to spread further, as per insights from the World Health Organization (WHO) and affiliated researchers.
This innovative approach, a first in Ebola response efforts, comes amidst challenges in containing what the WHO has labeled as the most rapidly expanding Ebola outbreak on record. With cases documented in six provinces, over 6,250 individuals have been infected, resulting in 3,039 deaths since the outbreak commenced on May 15, based on the most recent government figures.
This outbreak, the 17th in Congo, is triggered by the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, for which no approved vaccines or treatments currently exist.
As the contagion continues its spread, health officials are seeking ways to predict potential outbreak locations and allocate limited surveillance and response resources effectively.
Olivier Le Polain, the head of epidemiology and analytics for response at the WHO Health Emergencies Programme, emphasized the critical role population movements play in outbreaks, particularly in the ongoing epidemic.
Conventional risk assessments traditionally concentrate on outbreak epicenters and assume the virus will likely extend to neighboring regions. By analyzing mobility data, responders can identify risks in areas that may be geographically distant but closely linked through travel patterns.
The analysis, conducted by the Swedish non-profit organization Flowminder, utilizes de-identified records created when mobile phone users connect to telecommunication networks. These records offer insights into people’s movements across the country, aiding in estimating travel patterns between different areas.
Vodacom, the largest telecom operator in Congo, provides this data for analysis at no cost. Flowminder ensures that it receives only aggregated and anonymized records, with no access to individual subscriber information.
The findings derived from these analyses have highlighted the interconnectedness between various regions and underscored potential risks of virus spread to major hubs like Kisangani and even the capital city, Kinshasa.
Efforts are underway to collaborate with additional telecom operators to enhance coverage and gather more comprehensive data for a more robust response strategy.