Even prior to Ukraine’s recent significant attack on Moscow, which targeted a major refinery and resulted in thick black smoke over the city, the impact of Kyiv’s escalating drone operations was keenly felt by many Russians. In Crimea, which Russia unlawfully annexed in 2014, the appointed governor imposed a nighttime ban on motorcycles and scooters due to their resemblance to the drones frequently flying overhead.
The peninsula has experienced fuel shortages, restrictions, and discontent following Ukrainian strikes aimed at disrupting supply routes to the region. Although Moscow and its 13 million inhabitants have not yet encountered fuel scarcities, experts warn that Russia’s energy sector is facing mounting pressure as Ukraine intensifies its attacks nearer to the country engaged in the conflict through a mix of long- and medium-range strikes.
While empathizing with civilian suffering, Oleksandr Kharchenko, the director of the Energy Industry Research Center in Kyiv, emphasized that only the people of Moscow can halt the war. He expressed doubt that Russian President Vladimir Putin alone could lead the way to peace.
The recent assault on Moscow, the largest to date, occurred when Putin was hosting leaders from Southeast Asian nations in Kazan, over 700 kilometers away. The attack, carried out with approximately 200 drones, led to 16 injuries and the tragic death of an eight-year-old girl. The strike damaged residential buildings, a shopping mall, and vehicles, including launching an oil storage tank lid into the air.
The targeted refinery, owned by Gazprom Neft, supplied nearly 40% of the capital’s fuel before being hit twice in a week by significant strikes. Videos circulated online depicted the chaos and panic as air defenses attempted to intercept the drones. Following the incident, residents reported black residue on cars and described inky rain falling from the sky.
Acknowledging the drone attacks, the Kremlin assured that measures were being taken to address the aftermath. Igor Sechin, the CEO of Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil company, acknowledged the challenging conditions in the fuel market attributed to high seasonal demand and unforeseen refinery disruptions. He pledged to maintain fuel supply to essential facilities and industries while discouraging the filling of canisters.
In Crimea, where transportation infrastructure and fuel shipments have been repeatedly targeted, fuel rationing has been implemented. Restrictions include a 20-liter limit on gas per vehicle in Sevastopol. Reports of fuel shortages have also emerged in regions within Russia, such as Dagestan, prompting the country to consider importing fuel from Asia this month to alleviate the scarcity.
Anticipating a prolonged impact on Russia’s fuel supply, Kharchenko estimated that sustained attacks on energy infrastructure by Ukraine over the next four to six weeks could lead to a significant fuel deficit. Fire Point, a Ukrainian drone and missile manufacturer, showcased footage of the Moscow strikes at a defense convention in Paris, emphasizing the shift of war closer to the Russian capital.
Denys Shtilerman, co-founder of Fire Point, highlighted the targeting of energy installations in Moscow and vital logistical routes in occupied Ukrainian territories crucial for Russia’s military operations. He emphasized the disruptions faced by the Russian army in essential supply deliveries, underscoring the diminishing pressure on Ukrainian forces in combat situations.