Last week, residents of Moscow witnessed a significant drone attack carried out by Ukraine, resulting in black smoke looming over the city. This assault, the largest by Ukraine on the Russian capital since the commencement of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, led to numerous flight delays and cancellations. The attack targeted a major oil refinery on the outskirts of the city, causing repeated strikes and setting the facility ablaze, prompting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to warn, “If Ukraine burns, Moscow will burn too.”
The recent series of strikes has brought the war uncomfortably close to the daily lives of many Russians, disrupting routines and undermining their sense of security. Analysts suggest that these attacks could exacerbate internal anxieties as the conflict prolongs. However, the impact of this discontent on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hold on power or the potential for further escalation remains uncertain.
Historian Anne Applebaum highlighted that Muscovites experienced their first significant exposure to drone campaigns during the ongoing war, leading them to realize the proximity of the conflict and their lack of progress. Applebaum emphasized that while these attacks might not immediately end the conflict, they could significantly influence the mood of influential figures such as the business elite and political leaders who still hold sway over Putin’s decisions.
Despite the visible impact of the attacks, the Russian media chose not to broadcast footage of the incidents on evening news broadcasts, nor were residents alerted about the ongoing threat. This lack of communication and preparation added to the anxiety felt by Moscow residents, who expressed concerns over the situation’s control.
In parallel developments, Ukrainian strikes targeted an electronics plant in Voronezh, Russia, responsible for manufacturing missile components, and disrupted power in Russian-held Crimea while also affecting energy infrastructure in central and southern Russia. Consequently, fuel restrictions were imposed on the Crimean Peninsula. These actions have left affected communities, like Tuapse on the Black Sea coast, in a state of ongoing fear and uncertainty, with residents feeling unprotected and neglected by authorities.
The decline in public support for the war has raised concerns for Putin, according to exiled opposition activist Mikhail Khodorkovsky. He noted that a loss of societal backing could isolate Putin, leaving him reliant solely on the secret services for support. However, Khodorkovsky suggested that it is improbable for Russian oligarchs to turn against Putin, as they are integral components of his political machinery rather than independent entities.
Looking ahead, the potential for Putin to intensify his response in the face of mounting pressure remains a valid concern. There is a risk that he may resort to extreme measures, including mass violence, to maintain control amid domestic discontent and the prolonged conflict. The evolving situation poses significant challenges for Putin, who may be driven to demonstrate strength through increased aggression as the pressure mounts.