Labour faced a significant defeat in its traditional Welsh strongholds, landing in third place in the Caerphilly Senedd by-election. Experts analyzing the polls described the outcome as a sign of serious challenges for the party leading up to the crucial Welsh Parliament elections in May 2026.
Plaid Cymru secured victory in Caerphilly with a substantial lead of 3,848 votes and a notable swing of nearly 27% from Labour, with a voter turnout exceeding 50%. The election results revealed Plaid Cymru capturing 47% of the vote share, surpassing Nigel Farage’s Reform UK at 36%.
Labour, the longstanding holder of the Caerphilly seat since its inception in 1999, fell to a distant third place with a meager 11% share. The Conservative candidate, Gareth Potter, garnered only 690 votes, while the Green Party and Liberal Democrats received 516 and 497 votes, respectively. Despite a strong campaign effort, Reform UK also failed to clinch the Welsh seat.
Following the defeat, First Minister Eluned Morgan acknowledged the challenging circumstances of the by-election and expressed gratitude to Labour’s candidate, Richard Tunnicliffe. Morgan congratulated Lindsey Whittle on the victory and emphasized the party’s commitment to address the community’s desire for faster progress.
Nick Thomas-Symonds, the Welsh Labour MP and Minister for Europe, recognized the tough battle ahead for Labour in the upcoming Senedd elections. He acknowledged the disappointment of the loss and highlighted the need to accelerate the pace of change based on feedback from constituents in Caerphilly.
Polling expert Sir John Curtice suggested that Plaid Cymru is well-positioned to potentially secure the role of the next First Minister of Wales. He noted Reform’s disappointment with the outcome but indicated consistency with the party’s national polling trends.
Plaid Cymru’s leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, celebrated the victory in Caerphilly, emphasizing the choice for hope and progress over division. He highlighted the party’s vision for a positive future for Wales and positioned Plaid Cymru as the leading force for change and new leadership in the region.