Last week, the skies over Moscow were filled with dark smoke as Ukrainian drones flew above the city. This marked Ukraine’s most significant drone attack on the Russian capital since the full-scale invasion by Russia in 2022. The attacks led to numerous flight delays and cancellations, with a major oil refinery on the outskirts of the city being repeatedly targeted and set on fire.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned, “If Ukraine is going to burn, your Moscow will burn too.” These recent strikes have brought the war closer to the daily lives of many Russians, creating disruptions and undermining their sense of security. Analysts suggest that the ongoing attacks could heighten internal tensions as the conflict continues, raising questions about the impact on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s authority and potential for further escalation.
Historian Anne Applebaum highlighted that Muscovites were experiencing real drone campaigns for the first time since the war began, leading to a growing realization that the conflict was not in their favor. Applebaum emphasized that while the attacks might not immediately end the war, they could significantly influence the attitudes of key figures like business and political elites who still hold sway over Putin.
Despite the visible impact of the strikes, footage of the attacks was not broadcast on evening news in Russia, and residents were not alerted to the threat. This lack of information heightened anxiety among the population, with some questioning the authorities’ response to the situation.
In other parts of Russia, such as Voronezh and Crimea, Ukrainian strikes targeted critical infrastructure, further unsettling residents and raising concerns about safety. The ongoing attacks have left many Russian civilians feeling unprotected and fearful, with reports of declining support for Putin amidst the ongoing conflict.
Criticism of Putin’s handling of the war has emerged even among pro-war factions, with some questioning the effectiveness and morality of the ongoing military campaign. Exiled opposition activist Mikhail Khodorkovsky expressed concerns that a loss of public support could leave Putin reliant solely on security forces, potentially leading to increased authoritarian measures to maintain control.
As the war continues and domestic discontent grows, Putin faces mounting challenges in managing both internal dissent and the conflict itself. Some experts warn that Putin’s response to escalating pressure could result in heightened aggression rather than a willingness to compromise, potentially leading to further destabilization in the region.